CHARACTERS
GAME SHOW HOST: Charismatic, quick-tongued, and artificially
cordial—like a salesman except you like him.
CONTESTANT 1: The contestant whose answers are fixed in the
script.
CONTESTANT 2: The genuine contestant.
Enter HOST, with flair.
HOST: Welcome, one, all, some, and none, to yet another episode of
Quandaries Unplugged, the show where the classic logical puzzles, paradoxes
and enigmas of antiquity are brought to life in full stereo sound!
Last week, we went into the great virgin pine forests of the Northwest
and cut down a tree to see what sound it made. Unfortunately, our
ratings show that no one was listening to the program just then, so our
results were inconclusive. But this week, we have a real humdinger
of a puzzle for you! The paradox of the two boxes!
Host waves his arms toward a pair of imaginary boxes to his left,
one large and one small.
HOST: This paradox was invented by physicist William Newcomb.
The idea is this—listen carefully. Each of our two contestants will
be given a choice of taking home either both boxes, or the big box alone.
The small box contains one thousand dollars. The big box may contain
one million dollars, or it may contain nothing. Now here’s the twist—a
super-powerful mental collective has carefully analyzed the minds, personalities
and preferences of our two contestants, and has decided whether each of
them will take both boxes, or just the big one. If the contestant
is predicted to take only the big box, it will contain a million dollars.
If, on the other hand, the greedy contestant is predicted to take both
boxes, then the big box contains nothing, and the contestant will get only
a thousand—assuming the collective has predicted correctly. Now,
we can’t guarantee that the collective’s predictions will be correct…but
They’ve Never Been Wrong Yet.
Now, here’s the paradox. Should our
contestants take only the big box? If they do, they stand to gain
a cool million—and that’s tax-free. So it seems to make sense.
However, the fact remains—both boxes already have their contents set and
they’re not going to change now. So they might as well take both
boxes and get everything there is. So that seems to make sense too.
Which argument is correct? Let’s find
out! Contestants, come on out!!
CONTESTANTS plod onto stage, looking confused.
HOST: Which one of you is Contestant 2?
CONTESTANT 2: I am.
HOST: Okay, well… let’s start with you. Do you understand your
choices?
CONTESTANT 1: Hey, wait a minute! I’m Contestant 1! I should
go first!
HOST: What? Why?
CONTESTANT: Well, because 1 comes before 2. Duh.
HOST: I personally am offended by your attitude. Is Contestant
2 less of a person just because (he/she) has a higher-numbered part than
you? Are the Contestant 1s, the Police Officer 1s, the Student 1s
of this world so pompous that they must always be the first in everything,
the first in line, the first to speak, to laugh, to live… to die!?
CONTESTANT 1: Sheesh. Okay, fine. Let Contestant 2 go first.
See if I care.
CONTESTANT 2: Hooray!
HOST: Okay, now that that’s settled, Contestant 2, why don’t you tell
us a little about yourself?
CONTESTANT 2 says a little about (himself/herself).
HOST: That’s great, that’s just great! Now, do you understand
the choices?
CONTESTANT 2: Yep!
HOST: In that case, think about the problem, and whisper your choice
to me when you’re ready. Will you take both boxes, or just the big
one?
CONTESTANT 2 thinks and then whispers his/her choice to HOST.
NOTE: Really do this, instead of just pretending.
HOST: Okay! We have our choice. Now, let’s retroactively
predict what Contestant 2 chose!
CONTESTANT 2: Retroactively??
HOST: Well, sure! Everyone in the audience—based on your impressions
and knowledge of this contestant—if you think Contestant 2 chose to take
both boxes, clap your hands now!!
Wait for applause.
HOST: Okay. And everyone who thinks Contestant 2 chose to take
only the big box, clap now!
Wait for applause.
HOST: Okay, I think we have our answer! Just a moment while we
find the right part of the script…
PART 1A: Contestant chooses both boxes, audience predicts both boxes.
HOST: The superintelligent audience predicted that our contestant would
take both boxes, and that’s exactly what (he/she) did! Which
means that you get to feel silly. You get only a thousand dollars,
and the big box… (goes over to lift big box)…is empty! Tough
luck!
CONTESTANT 2: Oh well. At least I’m right in principle.
Who wants to help me spend a thousand bucks?
CONTESTANT 2 grabs the thousand and dances off stage.
Jump to the Last Section.
PART 1B: Contestant chooses both boxes, audience predicts only the big box.
HOST: The audience predicted that our contestant would take only the
big box. Tell ‘em what you really predicted, contestant!
CONTESTANT 2 (leaping up and down): I’m taking them both!
I’m taking them both!
HOST goes over to lift the big box.
HOST: Well, you certainly proved our No Shame Night audience wrong!
You get a million dollars in the big box, and a thousand in the small one!
CONTESTANT 2: Wooohooooo!!! I get it all!!! I get it all!!!
CONTESTANT 2 grabs the money, clutches it tight, and rushes off
stage.
Jump to the Last Section.
PART 2A: Contestant chooses only the big box, audience predicts both boxes.
HOST: The audience predicted that our contestant would take both boxes…
did you?
CONTESTANT 2: I… uh… no. I only wanted to take one box.
My poor, ailing grandmother told me not to be selfish… so I only wanted
one box… I was hoping maybe to get some money…
HOST slowly goes to box and lifts it.
HOST (guilty): Oh… well, I’m sorry… but there’s no money here.
We thought you were going to be greedy…
CONTESTANT 2 (pitiful): Oh, that’s all right. I’ll just
take this box and sell it… maybe it’ll pay for half my grandmother’s operation…
CONTESTANT 2 takes the box and leaves, sadly.
Jump to the Last Section.
PART 2B: Contestant chooses only the big box, audience predicts only the big box.
HOST: Our superintelligent audience collective predicts that you would
take only the big box… and that’s exactly what you told me! Congratulations,
Contestant 2! You get… (goes over and picks up the box)…One
million dollars!
CONTESTANT 2: Woohoo yeah-huh!! Yeah, baby! Way to throw
logic out the window and go with reeeeesults! Bhooo-yeah!
HOST: Aw, take your mil and get outta here.
CONTESTANT runs to money, picks it up, and dances off stage.
Continue to the Last Section.
LAST SECTION
HOST: Well, that was certainly fun. Let’s go to our second contestant—
CONTEST 1 (annoyed): First.
HOST: Yeah, sure, whatever. First. You saw what happened
before. Whisper in my ear what you choose.
CONTESTANT 1 pretends to whisper in HOST’s ear.
HOST: Okay! now, audience! You know how it goes!
Everyone who thinks this contestant is going to take only the big box,
clap now!
Waits for applause.
HOST: Okay, and everyone who thinks this contestant will take both
boxes, clap now!
HOST claps and cheers really loudly while the audience claps.
HOST: Okay! I think that was pretty obvious… the collective predicted
you would take both boxes.
CONTESTANT 1: Ummmm…
HOST: What did you really choose?
CONTESTANT 1 (sullen): Why are you doing this to me?
HOST: Just answer the question.
CONTESTANT 1 (low angry voice): I chose only the big box.
HOST: Oh, did you! Well, it looks like you’re out of luck.
You see…(goes to box)…There’s nothing IN the box! Stupiiid!!
Hahahaa!
CONTESTANT 1: This is ridiculous! Your collective is supposed
to know what I chose, not to punish me by predicting wrong!
HOST: Hey, thy tried their best. I mean, obviously, the best
choice is to take both boxes. The other one’s still standing over
there… you could’ve had that. But the trick is to be the sort of
person who would only take one.
CONTESTANT 1: To be that kind of person, and yet take both of them?
HOST: Exactly.
CONTESTANT 1: But I just reasoned that if I got a million, great, and
if I got nothing, I could at least embarrass you in public.
HOST: Ah. Well, you see, the real source of the paradox comes
from the fact that this puzzle is not addressed to an impersonal puzzle-solving
mind, like most puzzles are. This puzzle makes assumptions about
the personality of the chooser. It’s designed to make you think you
want to take the big box alone… but the real answer is to take both, regardless
of which personality type you actually have. For other opinions,
however, see the July 1973 issue of Scientific American.
CONTESTANT 1: Oh yeah!?!?! (Pulling coat open)
Well, here’s a riddle for you, Host Man! I’ve got two sticks of dynamite
in my coat, ready to go off! You can choose to have me explode them
both, or only one of them! But if I predicted you would choose only
one stick, it’ll kill everyone in this room! If I predicted you would
choose them both, they’ll only be strong enough to maim and disfigure most
of you. What’ll it be?
HOST: Ah, well. That’s a very interesting quandary. Couldn’t
it wait until next show?
CONTESTANT 1 (growling): It’s logically equivalent.
HOST: I guess you might say that…
CONTESTANT 1: So what’re you going to do?
HOST: I have an ace up my sleeve you’ve forgotten about!
CONTESTANT 1: Huh? What?
HOST runs to ELF.
HOST: Say The End! Say The End!
CONTESTANT 1: What??
Uh… The End! The End!! THE END!!!